2026 Q1 recycling data paints a mixed picture of the year so far

After more than 4 months of waiting, we finally have some data on in-year packaging recycling.

There have been multiple delays in reporting this year due to issues with the government’s new ‘record reprocessed or exported packaging waste’ service. We now finally have the first report, but it is heavily caveated:

'Figures are provisional and based on submissions received to date; a notable proportion of data is still expected and will be included in future updates. Reported PRN/PERN revenue submissions currently include some significant anomalies and remain subject to quality assurance.'

Such a disclaimer calls for a cautious reading of the data.

Packaging recycling performance in Q1

While poor data had essentially been ‘priced in’ to the markets, the extent of underperformance in key materials like plastic is still surprising. We are not looking at a typical Q1 dataset.

The below table compares Q1 to previous quarters, but it is important to bear in mind that it isn’t really a like-for-like comparison due to the amount of missing data.

Figure 1: A comparison of every Q1 recycling performance this decade.

Q1 recycling data in context

The 2026 Q1 data shows weak performance across paper, glass aggregate, plastic and wood. Even with strong results for glass remelt, aluminium and steel, it was the weakest quarterly output this decade.

Looking at the overall compliance picture, we can compare the Q1 data and the confirmed carry-in from 2025 against a forecast of 2026 obligation. This allows us to gauge material performance against where we should be at this time in the year.

Figure 2: The Q1 recycling data and confirmed carry-in from 2025 compared to forecast of obligation this year.

Compliance year 2026

At the end of Q1 we should be at 25% of obligation achieved. Only glass remelt and steel are currently on track to meet in-year compliance (achieving compliance without the need for carry-in). Accounting for carry-in, plastic and wood look like they might struggle. Glass aggregate seems likely to fail compliance again, but a healthy remelt surplus should cover any shortfall.

Plastic – high risk 

With obligation being around 10% higher this year – and supply likely to be impacted by regulation changes around exporting waste – plastic looks like it might struggle this year. The poor Q1 data does not help this situation.

However, there is reason to be cautiously optimistic. Q4 last year was the strongest quarterly performance this decade, with 114,000 tonnes more recycling compared to the 2026-Q1 dataset. It is extremely unlikely that outputs have really fallen by 33%, so this drop must be due to missing data. We know the dataset will be re-released when more data is received, but we don’t yet know when to expect it.

For now, we are recommending a cautious reaction. At face value, the data look very weak, but we are confident that the dataset does not actually reflect reality. While prices have risen a little, there has not been much traded. It seems that others are remaining cautious and not panicking, which is good for the market.

One silver lining for plastic is that the Iran War has driven up the price of virgin plastic, which incentivises the use of recycled content. This could be a welcome boon to the plastics recycling industry and could help offset some of the negatives of the war (higher energy prices and disrupted supply chains).

Even so, plastic is likely to remain the most volatile and high-risk material this year.

Wood – high risk 

Wood failed in-year compliance for the first time this decade last year, although it achieved overall compliance with the help of carry-in. This year, obligation is expected by 3% higher due to recycling target increases, yet the amount of carry-in is 33% lower than in 2025.

Put simply, in-year recycling performance needs to be stronger than in 2025 for wood to achieve compliance. This may be difficult, and the market seems to be reflecting these fundamentals with much higher prices.

Against this backdrop, the weak Q1 recycling data does not help. However, and as with plastic, it seems likely that the dataset is substantially understated. With just 76,000 tonnes of recycling, Q1 is around 43% lower than Q4 of last year (133,000 tonnes). This is not a believable figure and will hopefully increase significantly in future releases.

Overall, wood could be quite a tight market this year and there is a genuine risk of noncompliance. We would therefore expect higher prices and tight supply.

Glass – medium risk 

Despite a recycling target increase, we expect glass obligation to be 2% lower this year. This is likely due to the unintentional consequence of EPR: producers moving to lighter materials to reduce waste management costs.

Out of all materials, the Q1 data for glass remelt look remarkably strong. It posted the second-best quarter this decade, with 362,000 tonnes of recycling. This more than makes up for glass aggregate’s record low output.

This should help calm the markets, as before this release glass was looking like it could be quite a tight market this year. There has been limited reaction to the data so far, though we have seen slight decreases in price, which will be welcomed by producers.

We expect glass prices to be at their lowest during the summer months, as major sporting events like the Football World Cup could increase waste arisings. On the other hand, glass reprocessing is very energy intensive industry. The Iran War has already driven up energy prices – and is likely to do so for the rest of the year.

Prices could go either way this year.

Aluminium – low risk 

Demand for aluminium PRNs is predicted to be 7% higher this year due to recycling target changes and higher placed on market (PoM) figures. While it should achieve compliance with the help of the strong carry-in figure, in-year recycling will have to remain broadly consistent with Q1 volumes.

The aluminium PRN market tends to be volatile but has followed a similar pattern in the last three years: prices start relatively low, spike in the middle part of the year before falling back down.

This year is no different but continued strong recycling outputs should start to see prices come down again.

Steel – low risk 

Steel had good recycling performance last year and we came into 2026 with a moderate carry-in. Typically considered a declining packaging material, obligation is expected to be 5% lower despite a recycling target increase.

Following Tata Steel’s exit from the market in 2024 to retrofit an electric arc furnace, around 80% of steel packaging is now exported. Half of this goes beyond the EU, so there could be supply disruptions from the export regulation changes and the situation in the Middle East. Even so, with 25.1% of obligation already achieved in-year, steel looks to be fairly low risk this year.

It also seems likely that the Q1 data could be understated. For example, 19.1% of steel packaging was domestically reprocessed in 2025-Q4, compared to 62.8% in Q1. This does not seem like a believable jump and will presumably be ironed out in future data releases.

Paper and fibre-based composite – low risk 

Despite an estimated 5% increase in obligation this year, paper had good recycling performance in 2025 and a record carry-out. Indeed, the carry-in from 2025 accounts for around 10% of obligation. This means that even with the Q1 data being 34% lower than Q4, paper is still on track to achieve compliance. We expect future releases to correct this figure, so it is likely that paper has had the strongest start to the year for some time.

While the vast majority of our paper is currently exported, the Shotton Mill recycling plant in North Wales is due to begin operating this year, which will be a welcome increase for domestic reprocessing.

These market fundamentals do not seem reflected in current pricing. Prices have increased on the back of the Q1 data and are now similar to May 2024 prices. However, we would expect some softening from data rereleases and increased liquidity in the middle part of the year.

Looking ahead 

Ecosurety will continue to communicate changes in the PRN market throughout the year. Members can access the PRN market tracker that provides a daily update on market pricing trends and performance by clicking here.