Q1 2022 unverified packaging recycling data not as positive as hoped

The Q1 unverified recycling figures released by the Environment Agency indicate that only one material would have hit the quarterly target without carry-in.
The table below shows estimated gross and net requirements for 2022 packaging recycling. It also shows the carry-in tonnage reported earlier in the month. Carry-in is the amount of PRNs produced in December 2021 that are issued for 2022 use, with the amount increasing in comparison to the previous year, most significantly in plastic.
When we take carry-in into account, all materials are performing well against the recycling targets, showing a surplus in all materials.

What does this mean for producers?
Without carry-in, recycling volumes across all materials (bar wood) have not met the minimum 25% recycling target. Whilst the data is unverified and we expect the volumes for some material to increase over the coming weeks, this is not a very positive start to the year.
There will be an immediate price correction across all materials and prices will rise in the short term until we receive the UK demand, which should be issued by mid-May.
Plastic - High risk

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