Q2 2025 recycling data reveals mixed recycling performance

The unverified Q2 recycling and export figures released by the Environment Agency on 22 July 2025 show a mixed performance. While it is important to be cautious given the number of reprocessors and exporters yet to submit data, Q2 performance was generally weaker than Q1. 

The table below summarises the current compliance position. On the demand side, we have forecast obligation, the packaging recovery evidence note (PRN) requirements for compliance year 2025. We can then compare this to supply data – the number of PRNs generated in-year or ‘carried-in’ from last year (PRNs issued in December are ‘transitional’ and can be accepted into the following compliance year). 

Figure 1: Compliance year 2025 (YTD Target: 50%)

With a full six months’ worth of data, we would expect to have achieved at least 50% of the obligation to be on track to meet compliance. Performance is mixed however - while paper looks set to achieve compliance comfortably, having strong in-year recycling and a sizeable carry-in, plastic is currently on track to fail in-year compliance. Additionally, the weak performance of glass aggregate will put pressure on remelt as more will be required to cover any shortfall. 

Overall, 2025-Q2 had the second-weakest Q2 performance this decade with just 1.9 million tonnes of packaging handled across all materials. The table below gives a comparison of Q2 performances this decade, showing particularly poor results in glass aggregate and steel. 

Figure 2: The unverified 2025-Q2 data set against all Q2 performances this decade.

Arguably, the most uncertain year since the regulations were introduced in 1997, the EPR transition year has so far avoided the kind of price volatility we got used to during the Covid years. Obligations are broadly competitive, recycling performance has been mixed, and the markets are responding rationally to the data fundamentals. 

Plastic – high risk 

Plastic obligation is around 7% higher than last year and in-year performance has been slow. Unless performance improves in the latter part of the year, the 50 thousand tonnes of carry-in may be crucial in achieving compliance. In terms of price, the market is decidedly bullish, with prices being almost double what they were coming into the year. 

Glass – high risk 

Glass is a high-risk material this year. Despite the obligation being lower than last year, PRN generation has struggled to keep up. Crucially, neither type of glass is on track to meet in-year compliance. The extremely weak performance of glass aggregate places added pressure on glass remelt, which will now need to overperform to cover the shortfall.  

Aluminium – medium risk 

Aluminium had a better result in Q2 than in Q1, with 5 thousand tonnes more recycling. This has helped soften the price somewhat in recent weeks, although it is still almost triple what it was in January. Even so, it is a tight market, and any reduction in output will increase the risk of noncompliance. 

Steel – low risk 

Steel is not a material of concern this year: carry-in was strong and in-year performance has so far exceeded target. Steel is a declining packaging material, with obligation being 2% lower than last year and prices remaining stable. 

Paper – low risk

Paper had a below-average performance in Q2. Despite this, strong recycling data in Q1 and a significant carry-in from last year mean that the risk of noncompliance is low. With 63% of obligation having already been achieved, supply remains high, and prices are low relative to recent years.  

Wood – low risk 

Despite a very slow H1 and an increased recycling target, wood looks on course to achieve compliance comfortably. Prices have remained fairly flat and significant fluctuation seems unlikely at this point. 

Looking ahead 

The 2025-Q2 data show poor performance overall, on the back of a weak Q1. It looks to be a tight year for some materials, and prices could become volatile as a result.  

Ecosurety will continue to communicate changes in the PRN market throughout the year. You can access the PRN market tracker that provides a daily update on market pricing trends and performance by clicking here.