Q3 2025 recycling data reveals mixed recycling performance

The unverified Q3 recycling and export figures released by the Environment Agency on 22 October 2025 show a mixed performance.

While it is important to be cautious given the number of reprocessors and exporters yet to submit data, Q3 performance was generally weaker than Q1 & Q2. 

The table below summarises the current compliance position. On the demand side, we have forecast obligation, the packaging recovery evidence note (PRN) requirements for the compliance year 2025. We can then compare this to supply data – the number of PRNs generated in-year or ‘carried-in’ from last year (PRNs issued in December are ‘transitional’ and can be accepted into the following compliance year). 

Figure 1: Compliance year 2025 (YTD Target: 75%)

*Glass - remelt and aggregate combined total

With a full nine months’ worth of data, we would expect to have achieved at least 75% of the obligation to be on track to meet compliance. Performance is mixed however - while paper, aluminium and steel look set to achieve compliance comfortably, having strong in-year recycling and a sizeable carry-in, plastic and glass are currently on track to fail in-year compliance and will rely on their carry-ins to achieve this. Additionally, the weak performance of glass aggregate will put pressure on remelt as more will be required to cover any shortfall. 

Overall, 2025-Q3 had the weakest Q3 performance this decade with just 1.9 million tonnes of packaging handled across all materials. The table below gives a comparison of Q3 performances this decade, showing a particularly poor result in wood. 

Figure 2: The unverified 2025-Q3 data set against all Q3 performances this decade. 

Q3 2025 in context - decadal highs and lows are shown for each material

Arguably, the most uncertain year since the regulations were introduced in 1997, 2025 (the EPR transition year) has so far avoided the kind of price volatility we got used to during the Covid years. Obligations are broadly competitive, recycling performance has been mixed, and the markets are responding rationally to the data fundamentals. 

Plastic – high risk 

Plastic obligation is around 8.8% higher than last year. Whilst the performance has much improved since Q2, plastic is still heavily reliant on the 50 thousand tonnes of carry-in to achieve compliance. In fact, this is the best performance for plastic, year to date, this decade. In terms of price, the market has seen significant volatility since the recent publication of the obligation in September. The market has yet to settle and continues to react to any market dynamic changes. This will likely remain a high risk for the remainder of the year due to the potential changes in obligation. 

Glass – high risk 

Glass is a high-risk material this year. Despite the obligation being lower than last year, PRN generation has struggled to keep up. Crucially, glass remelt is on track to achieve in year compliance. The extremely weak performance of glass aggregate places added pressure on glass remelt, which will now need to overperform to cover the shortfall.  

Aluminium – low risk 

Aluminium had a better result in Q3 than in Q1 and Q2. This has helped soften the price somewhat in recent weeks. Prices look likely to continue falling for the remainder of the year as in year compliance looks likely.  

Steel – low risk 

Steel is not a material of concern this year: carry-in was strong and in-year performance has so far exceeded target. Steel is a declining packaging material, with obligation being level to last year and prices remaining stable. 

Paper – low risk 

Paper had a below-average performance in Q3. Despite this, strong recycling data in Q1 and a significant carry-in from last year mean that the risk of noncompliance is low. With 88% of obligation having already been achieved, supply remains high, and prices are low relative to recent years.  

Wood – low risk 

Despite a below-average performance in Q3 and an increased recycling target, wood looks on course to achieve compliance comfortably. Prices remained fairly flat until recently when the was an increase in prices. 

Looking ahead 

The 2025-Q3 data shows poor performance overall, on the back of a weak Q1 and Q2. It looks to be a tight year for some materials, and prices could become volatile as a result.  

Ecosurety will continue to communicate changes in the PRN market throughout the year. You can access the PRN market tracker that provides a daily update on market pricing trends and performance by clicking here.