Q4 2024 recycling data shows strong recycling performance

Carry-in from 2024

PRN production was strong in 2024 with all materials achieving in-year compliance except glass aggregate, which has now failed in-year compliance two years in a row. The ‘carry-in’ – December 2024 PRNs that were carried into the 2025 compliance year – was reasonably strong, particularly in paper, which will ease pressure on achieving compliance in 2025.

Compliance Year 2025

What does this mean for producers?

Glass - High risk

Glass recycling has had a tough start to the year. Several suppliers have since left the aggregate market after a turbulent year in 2024. Aggregate has thus far only achieved 10% of the UK’s forecasted obligation (including the tiny carry in). Over the last five years, there has been a shortfall in aggregate PRNs, which have had to be supplemented by remelt PRNs. We should also note the realignment in glass PRN target splits last year (2023: 72|28 to remelt, 2024: 75|25 to remelt).

There has been no change to this in 2025. Glass remelt has had a more stable start compared to glass aggregate. A stronger carry-in of 15% (including carry-in) suggests a less turbulent year for Remelt. However, the poor performance of aggregate may have a knock-on effect on Remelt, where we will likely be reliant on it performing above the required levels on compliance to compensate for the lower levels of aggregate. Both glass materials will remain a high risk unless there are significant changes in H1 due to the poor data.

Aluminium - Medium risk

With a low carry-in of 3,595t, Aluminium has had a difficult start to 2025 with only 12.5% achieved against the forecasted obligation. Prices have begun low in 2025 and look likely to increase as we move through the first half of the compliance year. U.S. President Trump’s proposed tariffs have left some uncertainty in both the aluminium and steel markets, but this is unlikely to have a material impact on PRN prices.

Plastic - Medium risk

After a turbulent 2022 and 2023, plastic has had a period of good throughput, strong recycling data and has created a good carry-in to 2025, although this was much smaller than expected. Price peaks have been short-lived, and prices have generally been stable compared to the volatility seen in previous years. So far this year, plastic has achieved just under 15% of the forecasted obligation (including carry-in).

Steel - Low risk

Despite concerns that Steel may have a volatile year, this never really came to fruition in 2024. With TATA Steel exiting the market due to its decarbonisation programme, the majority of PRNs are now generated via export rather than the UK. Steel has performed well so far and has achieved 16% toward its forecasted obligation (including carry-in). Steel looks likely to remain low risk for this year.

Paper and fibre composite - Low risk

Similar to 2024, Paper has had a good start to 2025 with strong Q4 data. 2024 prices remained low and look likely to follow a similar trajectory for 2025. Paper and Fibre Composite has already achieved 20% of its forecasted obligation; combined with the carry-in, it is in the strongest position of all materials.

Wood - Low risk

Wood follows a similar trend to paper, where prices have remained stable and low since the start of the compliance year. It performed well against its recycling target (which increased by 7% YoY) and looks to have a strong carry-in for 2025 compliance.  

Looking ahead

Ecosurety will continue to communicate the changes in the PRN market throughout the year. If you would like to understand more about how the recycling data impacts your PRN obligations, please contact us on 0333 4330 370.

Ecosurety members can access the PRN market tracker that provides a daily update on market pricing trends and performance.